Will Arch Capital stock go up?

According to Danelfin AI, Arch Capital has today an AI Score of 5/10 (Hold rating), because its probability of beating the market in 3 months (51.01%) is +0.19% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks.

What is the target price for Arch Capital stock?

The Arch Capital target price is $102.23 (1Y), according to the average price target offered by analysts.

Is it a good time to buy, sell, or hold Arch Capital stock right now?

Arch Capital has today a Hold rating (AI Score 5/10), according to Danelfin AI. Its probability of beating the market in 3 months (51.01%) is +0.19% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks, based on our AI-powered analysis. You can find more details on whether Arch Capital stock is a good buy .

Is Arch Capital undervalued right now?

Based on analysts, the average price target downside for Arch Capital is 0.00% (1Y). According to Danelfin AI, Arch Capital has today an AI Score of 5/10 (Hold Rating).

What was the price range of Arch Capital stock over the past 12 months?

The Arch Capital stock price range over the past 12 months has been $84.72 - $102.23.

What is going on with Arch Capital stock in the last 3 months?

The Arch Capital stock performance in the last quarter has been +7.05%.

Does Arch Capital offer dividend payments?

No, Arch Capital does not currently pay dividends.

What is the current market capitalization of Arch Capital?

Arch Capital's market cap is $35.71B, as of 2026-07-03 08:00.

Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGL) AI Stock Analysis

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ACGL AI-Powered Stock Analysis

AI Score Explanation

AI Score

Hold

Fundamental
Technical
Sentiment
Low Risk

According to Danelfin’s proprietary AI model, Arch Capital Group Ltd today receives an AI Score of 5/10, which translates to a Hold rating. The stock has a 51% probability of outperforming the market in the next 3 months, which is 1% higher than the average probability of any stock (50%). The top positive contributors include the Insurance industry (impact +0.80%), the Chart Pattern (504d) (impact +0.42%), and Stock-Based Compensation in the top 10% (impact +0.38%). On the other hand, the main detractors are the Country (Bermuda) (impact -1.04%), the Fundamentals Impact (Long Tail) (impact -0.47%), and Tangible Shareholders' Equity in the top 10% (impact -0.28%). Notable data points include a Fear & Greed Index of 31, indicating fear in the market, which positively influences the probability. The Analyst Lowest Price Upside is in the bottom 50% with a value of -7.07%, yet it contributes positively. Conversely, Basic EPS and Beginning Cash are both in the top 10% but detract from the probability. The Normalized Average True Range (50d) is in the bottom 10%, indicating low volatility, which also detracts. Overall, the mixed signals balance out, resulting in a neutral HOLD rating, suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market over the next 3 months.

AI Score Explanation

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Momentum+1.20%
Direction and strength of recent price movements
Earnings Quality+0.38%
Stability and reliability of reported earnings

Valuation-0.94%
How the stock is priced relative to its fundamentals
Sentiment-0.13%
How analysts and the market view the stock
Size & Liquidity-0.12%
Company size and trading liquidity
Growth-0.12%
Expected pace of revenue and earnings expansion
Volatility-0.08%
How much the stock price tends to fluctuate

ACGL probability advantage of beating the market (3M):

+0.19%

AI Score

Hold

Arch Capital (ACGL) has an AI Score of 5/10 (Hold) because, according to an overall analysis, it has a probability advantage of +0.19% of beating the market (S&P500) in the next 3 months. This advantage is calculated as the difference between the average probability of any US-listed stock (50.82%) and the probability of ACGL (51.01%) of outperforming the market in the next 3 months, as determined by Danelfin AI’s comprehensive analysis.

Average probability of any US-listed stock of beating the market (3M)50.82%
ACGL probability advantage of beating the market (3M)+0.19%
ACGL probability of beating the market (3M)51.01%

ACGL probability advantage of beating the market (3M): +0.19%

The AI-powered overall analysis of Arch Capital (ACGL) is based on the 26 fundamental, technical, and sentiment features that had the greatest impact on stock performance during the last 12 months (alpha signals). These alpha signals explain the probability advantage of ACGL:

Type	Alpha Signal	Current Value	Value Decile Position	Probability Advantage Impact (3M)
Sentiment	Country	Bermuda	N/A	-1.04%
Sentiment	Industry (GICS)	Insurance	N/A	+0.80%
Fundamental	Fundamentals Impact (Long Tail)	-	N/A	-0.47%
Technical	Chart Pattern (504d)	figure_96	N/A	+0.42%
Fundamental	Stock-Based Compensation (Millions)	82		+0.38%
Sentiment	Analyst Lowest Price Upside	-0.07%		+0.30%
Fundamental	Tangible Shareholders' Equity	23K		-0.28%
Technical	Distance from KAMA (20d)	0.07%		+0.27%
Technical	ATR (14d Volatility)	2.15		+0.25%
Technical	Maximum Volatility	2.23%		-0.25%
Sentiment	Upgrade to unlock			+0.16%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			-0.16%
Sentiment	Upgrade to unlock			+0.16%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			-0.12%
Fundamental	Upgrade to unlock			-0.12%

Rest of Alpha Signals: -0.19%

ACGL probability advantage of beating the market (3M)Total:+0.19%
ACGL AI Score

Significant changes Vs previous day

ACGL Trading Parameters

These suggested trading parameters for a 3-month horizon help improve risk management and decision-making.

Entry:$102.23
Horizon: 3 months
Stop Loss:$XXXXXPro (XXXXXPro) or AI Score < 4/10
Take Profit:$XXXXXPro (XXXXX
Pro
) or AI Score < 4/10

ACGL Proven Hold Signal & Price Forecast

This is the price chart for ACGL from January 2, 2026 until today. The chart indicates, in yellow, the 101 days when the stock received a Hold rating (hold signals, AI Score 4 to 6).

Forecast: In the section below, the central dotted line represents the most expected path, while the shaded area indicates the anticipated price range. This is based on previous Hold signals with a 90% confidence level.

Full Track Record

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Closing price (USD)
Hold signals

Forecast:

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6 Months
1 Year

ACGL Average Past Performance & Win Rate

Three months after its 1231 Hold signals since July 2026, ACGL had an average performance of xxxxxx and a xxxxxx Win rate (positive performance).

1231 Past ACGL Hold Signals	1 Month Later	3 Months Later	6 Months Later	1 Year Later
Average Performance				+19.63%
Average Alpha				+6.13%
Win Rate (% Positive Perf.)				66.10%
% Positive Alpha				51.91%

ACGL Frequently Asked Questions

Will Arch Capital stock go up?
According to Danelfin AI, Arch Capital has today an AI Score of 5/10 (Hold rating), because its probability of beating the market in 3 months (51.01%) is +0.19% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks.
What is the target price for Arch Capital stock?
Is it a good time to buy, sell, or hold Arch Capital stock right now?
Is Arch Capital undervalued right now?
What was the price range of Arch Capital stock over the past 12 months?
What is going on with Arch Capital stock in the last 3 months?
Does Arch Capital offer dividend payments?
What is the current market capitalization of Arch Capital?

Arch Capital Group Ltd Company Profile

Arch Capital Group Ltd., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, delivers a broad spectrum of insurance and reinsurance products, as well as mortgage insurance to a global clientele. One segment of the company provides a variety of casualty insurance options, including primary and auxiliary coverages along with loss-sensitive packages. It extends coverage to various professional liabilities such as directors' and officers', errors and omission liability, fiduciary matters, professional indemnity amongst several finance-related protection plans.

The firm's other range of services encompasses medical professionals' liability insurance, comprehensive workers’ compensation packages, and umbrella liability to ensure all-round coverage for clients. For business operations on wheels or waters, it offers commercial automobile and inland marine products respectively.

Other unique propositions include specialized property, energy, aviation and travel-related insurances. Supplemental income solutions in the form of accident reimbursement plans accompany their range of medical insurance options. Additionally, they facilitate captive insurance programs for specific client needs ranging from employer’s accountability and commercial surety to debt cancellation services.

As for marketing these innovative offerings? The segment primarily utilizes an assembly of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers who bring their products to the masses.

The Reinsurance wing focuses on providing security against third-party liability exposures; extending towards sectors as diverse as marine/aviation ventures to agriculture trade credit risks. Their reassurance is not only limited at safeguarding individuals in case of personal calamities but also offers full-fledged solutions enabling risk management on a much larger scale - inclusive of catastrophe losses experienced by businesses themselves.

This reinsurance provision is effectively showcased through various brokers worldwide ensuring that their risk management solutions reach far corners across nations.

In another outstanding effort aimed at broad spectrum financial assurance – Arch Capital has carved out another sub-segment specializing in direct mortgage security complete with mortgage reassurances designed for every need.

Given its founding date back in 1995 - this Bermuda-based establishment has left no stone unturned when it comes to offering the most holistic insurance coverage options covering an array of industries and individual needs. Arch Capital Group Ltd. continues to uphold its institutional promise by ensuring that no liability is too big or too niche for them to handle.

Sector:
Country:-
Industry:
Address:Waterloo House 100 Pitts Bay Road, Pembroke
Employees:8,000
Website:archgroup.com

Pros

Diversified underwriting across insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage

Specialized underwriting expertise yielding favorable loss ratios

Fee income generation from third-party capital management

High barriers to entry in specialty insurance markets

Pricing power in niche specialty insurance and reinsurance

Cons

Exposure to large claims from catastrophic events

Sensitivity of investment income to interest rate fluctuations

Extensive regulatory oversight and compliance cost burden

Cyclicality of property and casualty insurance pricing

Intense competition from global insurance and reinsurance firms

ACGL Stock AI Analysis