Will First Watch Restaurant stock go up?

According to Danelfin AI, First Watch Restaurant has today an AI Score of 3/10 (Sell rating), because its probability of beating the market in 3 months (44.84%) is -5.98% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks.

What is the target price for First Watch Restaurant stock?

The First Watch Restaurant target price is $13.11 (1Y), according to the average price target offered by analysts.

Is it a good time to buy, sell, or hold First Watch Restaurant stock right now?

First Watch Restaurant has today a Sell rating (AI Score 3/10), according to Danelfin AI. Its probability of beating the market in 3 months (44.84%) is -5.98% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks, based on our AI-powered analysis. You can find more details on whether First Watch Restaurant stock is a good buy .

Is First Watch Restaurant undervalued right now?

Based on analysts, the average price target downside for First Watch Restaurant is 0.00% (1Y). According to Danelfin AI, First Watch Restaurant has today an AI Score of 3/10 (Sell Rating).

What was the price range of First Watch Restaurant stock over the past 12 months?

The First Watch Restaurant stock price range over the past 12 months has been $10.11 - $19.17.

What is going on with First Watch Restaurant stock in the last 3 months?

The First Watch Restaurant stock performance in the last quarter has been +19.83%.

Does First Watch Restaurant offer dividend payments?

No, First Watch Restaurant does not currently pay dividends.

What is the current market capitalization of First Watch Restaurant?

First Watch Restaurant's market cap is $806.93M, as of 2026-07-03 08:00.

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) AI Stock Analysis

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FWRG AI-Powered Stock Analysis

AI Score Explanation

AI Score

Sell

Fundamental
Technical
Sentiment
Low Risk

According to Danelfin’s proprietary AI model, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc today receives an AI Score of 3/10, which translates to a Sell rating. The stock has a 45% probability of outperforming the market in the next 3 months, which is 6% lower than the average probability of any stock (51%). Among the top positive contributors, the Fundamentals Impact (Long Tail) adds +2.17% to the probability, while Technicals Impact (Long Tail) contributes +1.19%. On the negative side, the Industry (GICS) being Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure detracts -4.37%, the Chart Pattern (504d) reduces probability by -3.32%, and the Distance from KAMA (20d) in the top 10% subtracts -1.25%. Notable data points include an Operating Profit Margin of 30.19% but in the bottom 40%, which negatively impacts the model. The Price-to-Earnings (P/E Ratio) of 45.73 is in the top 20%, indicating a rich valuation that detracts from the probability. Conversely, Alpha Last Day and Alpha 1Y are both in the bottom 30% but positively influence the score, suggesting potential mean reversion. The Earnings Countdown of -52 days (past earnings) in the bottom 20% also adds positively. Overall, the negative signals from industry, chart patterns, and valuation outweigh the positive technical and fundamental tail impacts, resulting in a Sell rating.

AI Score Explanation

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Valuation+0.92%
How the stock is priced relative to its fundamentals
Earnings Quality+0.69%
Stability and reliability of reported earnings
Growth+0.41%
Expected pace of revenue and earnings expansion

Sentiment-5.85%
How analysts and the market view the stock
Profitability-1.14%
Profitability and operating efficiency metrics
Momentum-1.01%
Direction and strength of recent price movements

FWRG probability advantage of beating the market (3M):

-5.98%

AI Score

Sell

First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) has an AI Score of 3/10 (Sell) because, according to an overall analysis, it has a probability advantage of -5.98% of beating the market (S&P500) in the next 3 months. This advantage is calculated as the difference between the average probability of any US-listed stock (50.82%) and the probability of FWRG (44.84%) of outperforming the market in the next 3 months, as determined by Danelfin AI’s comprehensive analysis.

Average probability of any US-listed stock of beating the market (3M)50.82%
FWRG probability advantage of beating the market (3M)-5.98%
FWRG probability of beating the market (3M)44.84%

FWRG probability advantage of beating the market (3M): -5.98%

The AI-powered overall analysis of First Watch Restaurant (FWRG) is based on the 27 fundamental, technical, and sentiment features that had the greatest impact on stock performance during the last 12 months (alpha signals). These alpha signals explain the probability advantage of FWRG:

Type	Alpha Signal	Current Value	Value Decile Position	Probability Advantage Impact (3M)
Sentiment	Industry (GICS)	Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure	N/A	-4.37%
Technical	Chart Pattern (504d)	figure_93	N/A	-3.32%
Fundamental	Fundamentals Impact (Long Tail)	-	N/A	+2.17%
Sentiment	Sentiment Impact (Long Tail)	-	N/A	-1.37%
Technical	Distance from KAMA (20d)	0.11%		-1.25%
Technical	Technicals Impact (Long Tail)	-	N/A	+1.19%
Fundamental	Operating Profit Margin	0.30%		-1.14%
Technical	Alpha Last Day	-0.02%		+1.10%
Fundamental	Price-to-Earnings (P/E Ratio)	45.73		-0.98%
Technical	Alpha 1Y	-0.44%		+0.97%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			-0.92%
Sentiment	Upgrade to unlock			+0.75%
Fundamental	Upgrade to unlock			+0.69%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			+0.66%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			+0.60%

Rest of Alpha Signals: -0.76%

FWRG probability advantage of beating the market (3M)Total:-5.98%
FWRG AI Score

Significant changes Vs previous day

FWRG Short Trading Parameters

These suggested trading parameters for a 3-month horizon help improve risk management and decision-making.

Entry:$13.11
Horizon: 3 months
Stop Loss:$XXXXXPro (XXXXXPro)
Take Profit:$XXXXXPro (XXXXX
Pro
)

FWRG Proven Sell Signal & Price Forecast

This is the price chart for FWRG from January 2, 2026 until today. The chart indicates, in red, the 45 days when the stock received a Sell/Strong Sell rating (sell signals, AI Score 1 to 3).

Forecast: In the section below, the central dotted line represents the most expected path, while the shaded area indicates the anticipated price range. This is based on previous Sell signals with a 90% confidence level.

Full Track Record

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Closing price (USD)
Sell signals

Forecast:

1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year

FWRG Average Past Performance & Loss Rate

Three months after its 251 Sell signals since July 2026, FWRG had an average performance of xxxxxx and a xxxxxx Loss rate (negative performance).

251 Past FWRG Sell Signals	1 Month Later	3 Months Later	6 Months Later	1 Year Later
Average Performance				+9.89%
Average Alpha				-0.28%
Loss Rate (% Negative Perf.)				23.56%
% Negative Alpha				45.98%

FWRG Frequently Asked Questions

Will First Watch Restaurant stock go up?
According to Danelfin AI, First Watch Restaurant has today an AI Score of 3/10 (Sell rating), because its probability of beating the market in 3 months (44.84%) is -5.98% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks.
What is the target price for First Watch Restaurant stock?
Is it a good time to buy, sell, or hold First Watch Restaurant stock right now?
Is First Watch Restaurant undervalued right now?
What was the price range of First Watch Restaurant stock over the past 12 months?
What is going on with First Watch Restaurant stock in the last 3 months?
Does First Watch Restaurant offer dividend payments?
What is the current market capitalization of First Watch Restaurant?

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Company Profile

Operating under the umbrella of its subsidiaries, First Watch Restaurant Group Inc. serves up cuisine under the culinary banner of 'First Watch' across the United States. Registered initially as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc., the company underwent a transformation, adopting its new name - First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. - in late December 2019. Established in 1983 and having its roots planted securely in Bradenton, Florida, this esteemed establishment has steadily developed over time to become the restaurant power it is today.

Sector:
Country:United States
Industry:
Address:8725 Pendery Place, Suite 201, Bradenton
Employees:17,500
Website:investors.firstwatch.com

Pros

Reduced operating hours for labor efficiency

Capital-light expansion via franchising model

Menu specialization for operational focus

Customer loyalty in breakfast and brunch

Favorable demographic trends for daytime dining

Cons

Exposure to food commodity price volatility

High labor intensity in the restaurant sector

Real estate acquisition challenges for expansion

Intense competition in casual dining

Discretionary consumer spending demand cyclicality

Pros

Cons

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FWRG Stock AI Analysis