Will Alarm.com stock go up?

According to Danelfin AI, Alarm.com has today an AI Score of 4/10 (Hold rating), because its probability of beating the market in 3 months (49.01%) is -1.81% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks.

What is the target price for Alarm.com stock?

The Alarm.com target price is $49.71 (1Y), according to the average price target offered by analysts.

Is it a good time to buy, sell, or hold Alarm.com stock right now?

Alarm.com has today a Hold rating (AI Score 4/10), according to Danelfin AI. Its probability of beating the market in 3 months (49.01%) is -1.81% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks, based on our AI-powered analysis. You can find more details on whether Alarm.com stock is a good buy .

Is Alarm.com undervalued right now?

Based on analysts, the average price target downside for Alarm.com is 0.00% (1Y). According to Danelfin AI, Alarm.com has today an AI Score of 4/10 (Hold Rating).

What was the price range of Alarm.com stock over the past 12 months?

The Alarm.com stock price range over the past 12 months has been $42.13 - $59.16.

What is going on with Alarm.com stock in the last 3 months?

The Alarm.com stock performance in the last quarter has been +14.80%.

Does Alarm.com offer dividend payments?

No, Alarm.com does not currently pay dividends.

What is the current market capitalization of Alarm.com?

Alarm.com's market cap is $2.46B, as of 2026-07-03 08:00.

Alarm.com Holdings Inc (ALRM) AI Stock Analysis

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ALRM AI-Powered Stock Analysis

AI Score Explanation

AI Score

Hold

Fundamental
Technical
Sentiment
Low Risk

According to Danelfin’s proprietary AI model, Alarm.com Holdings Inc today receives an AI Score of 4/10, which translates to a Hold rating. The stock has a 49% probability of outperforming the market in the next 3 months, which is 2% lower than the average probability of any stock (51%). Among the top positive contributors, the Fundamentals Impact (Long Tail) adds +3.73% to the probability, while Alpha 1Y (risk-adjusted return over the past year, currently in the bottom 40%) contributes +0.67%, and Earnings Countdown (50 days since last earnings, bottom 30%) adds +0.58%. On the negative side, the Industry (GICS) being Software detracts -4.47%, the Chart Pattern (504d) reduces probability by -1.05%, and the Chart Pattern (60d) subtracts -0.65%. Notable data points include Tangible Shareholders' Equity at $541.68M (in the top 40%), which positively influences the probability, and Operating Cash Flow (Qtr Discrete) at $50.63M (also top 40%), adding +0.39%. However, the Distance from KAMA (20d) is in the top 10% but detracts -0.54%, suggesting the stock may be overbought relative to its short-term adaptive trend. Additionally, ATR (14d Volatility) is in the top 30% and reduces probability by -0.45%, indicating higher volatility. Overall, while the stock shows solid fundamentals and positive technical long-tail effects, the negative industry impact and several chart patterns weigh down the probability, resulting in a Hold rating.

AI Score Explanation

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Valuation+4.37%
How the stock is priced relative to its fundamentals
Earnings Quality+0.61%
Stability and reliability of reported earnings
Size & Liquidity+0.24%
Company size and trading liquidity

Sentiment-5.10%
How analysts and the market view the stock
Momentum-1.49%
Direction and strength of recent price movements
Volatility-0.45%
How much the stock price tends to fluctuate

ALRM probability advantage of beating the market (3M):

-1.81%

AI Score

Hold

Alarm.com (ALRM) has an AI Score of 4/10 (Hold) because, according to an overall analysis, it has a probability advantage of -1.81% of beating the market (S&P500) in the next 3 months. This advantage is calculated as the difference between the average probability of any US-listed stock (50.82%) and the probability of ALRM (49.01%) of outperforming the market in the next 3 months, as determined by Danelfin AI’s comprehensive analysis.

Average probability of any US-listed stock of beating the market (3M)50.82%
ALRM probability advantage of beating the market (3M)-1.81%
ALRM probability of beating the market (3M)49.01%

ALRM probability advantage of beating the market (3M): -1.81%

The AI-powered overall analysis of Alarm.com (ALRM) is based on the 24 fundamental, technical, and sentiment features that had the greatest impact on stock performance during the last 12 months (alpha signals). These alpha signals explain the probability advantage of ALRM:

Type	Alpha Signal	Current Value	Value Decile Position	Probability Advantage Impact (3M)
Sentiment	Industry (GICS)	Software	N/A	-4.47%
Fundamental	Fundamentals Impact (Long Tail)	-	N/A	+3.73%
Technical	Chart Pattern (504d)	figure_84	N/A	-1.05%
Technical	Alpha 1Y	-0.33%		+0.67%
Technical	Chart Pattern (60d)	figure_150	N/A	-0.65%
Sentiment	Earnings Countdown	-50		+0.58%
Fundamental	Tangible Shareholders' Equity	541.68		+0.55%
Technical	Distance from KAMA (20d)	0.09%		-0.54%
Technical	Technicals Impact (Long Tail)	-	N/A	+0.50%
Fundamental	Net Property, Plant & Equipment (Net PP&E)	62.82		-0.47%
Sentiment	Upgrade to unlock			-0.46%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			-0.45%
Fundamental	Upgrade to unlock			+0.39%
Sentiment	Upgrade to unlock			-0.39%
Technical	Upgrade to unlock			-0.38%

Rest of Alpha Signals: +0.60%

ALRM probability advantage of beating the market (3M)Total:-1.81%
ALRM AI Score

Significant changes Vs previous day

ALRM Trading Parameters

These suggested trading parameters for a 3-month horizon help improve risk management and decision-making.

Entry:$49.71
Horizon: 3 months
Stop Loss:$XXXXXPro (XXXXXPro) or AI Score < 4/10
Take Profit:$XXXXXPro (XXXXX
Pro
) or AI Score < 4/10

ALRM Proven Hold Signal & Price Forecast

This is the price chart for ALRM from January 2, 2026 until today. The chart indicates, in yellow, the 101 days when the stock received a Hold rating (hold signals, AI Score 4 to 6).

Forecast: In the section below, the central dotted line represents the most expected path, while the shaded area indicates the anticipated price range. This is based on previous Hold signals with a 90% confidence level.

Full Track Record

Unlock AI-powered forecast

Closing price (USD)
Hold signals

Forecast:

1 Month
3 Months
6 Months
1 Year

ALRM Average Past Performance & Win Rate

Three months after its 1447 Hold signals since July 2026, ALRM had an average performance of xxxxxx and a xxxxxx Win rate (positive performance).

1447 Past ALRM Hold Signals	1 Month Later	3 Months Later	6 Months Later	1 Year Later
Average Performance				+12.93%
Average Alpha				-0.51%
Win Rate (% Positive Perf.)				53.39%
% Positive Alpha				41.29%

ALRM Frequently Asked Questions

Will Alarm.com stock go up?
According to Danelfin AI, Alarm.com has today an AI Score of 4/10 (Hold rating), because its probability of beating the market in 3 months (49.01%) is -1.81% vs. the average probability (50.82%) of all US-listed stocks.
What is the target price for Alarm.com stock?
Is it a good time to buy, sell, or hold Alarm.com stock right now?
Is Alarm.com undervalued right now?
What was the price range of Alarm.com stock over the past 12 months?
What is going on with Alarm.com stock in the last 3 months?
Does Alarm.com offer dividend payments?
What is the current market capitalization of Alarm.com?

Alarm.com Holdings Inc Company Profile

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is an international provider of Internet of Things (IoT) solutions for a diverse range of markets including residential and commercial properties in North America and beyond. The company operates through two business wings: Alarm.com and Other. Its portfolio encompasses control and monitoring systems for security and IoT appliances such as door locks, video cameras, thermostats, garage doors among others.

The firm also provides diligent video surveillance and analytical tools featuring video analytics, cloud-based storage, live streaming capabilities, intelligent integration of systems, event escalation solutions, video alerts and video doorbells. Additionally offered are innovative services like energy usage measurement as well as heating, ventilation, and air conditioning monitoring solutions for optimal comfort precision.

Further essentials in their offerings include user-friendly thermostat schedules, solar monitoring facilities along with domestic water safety measures. They also deliver commercial-level visual surveillance utilities as well as access management amenities on demand both at localised or multiple-site levels.

Alarm.com brings to the fore unique enterprise dashboard solutions shown alongside key operational metrics that offer insight into technician performance system reliability among other factors influencing customer experience. Enhancing its product line further includes applications aiming at false alarm reduction through AI-powered enhancements to professional monitoring systems. A unified interface presents these key indicators in a collective view providing a holistic understanding of operational success.

Establishing itself as an indispensable partner for customers who opt for IoT devices from this brand are added support features like MobileTech Applications together with Remote Toolkit; crucial web services along with business intelligence insights; sales & marketing services; health and wellness maintenance plans; indoor gunshot detection abilities; utility grid & water management strategies just to name a few.

Founded in 2000 and having its operations headquartered conveniently in Tysons Virginia sums up the succinct footprint on the IoT landscape by Alarm.com Holdings Inc.

Sector:Information Technology
Country:United States
Industry:
Address:8281 Greensboro Dr Ste 100, Tysons, Fairfax
Employees:2,058
Website:alarm.com

Pros

High customer switching costs in integrated security systems

Predictable recurring revenue from subscription services

Indirect network effects among service providers and device manufacturers

Operating leverage from scalable cloud software platform

Proprietary technology and intellectual property in smart home integration

Cons

Reliance on third-party dealer network for customer acquisition

Pros

Cons

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ALRM Stock AI Analysis